⌘
EPA per play
Offensive and defensive Expected Points Added. The most predictive metric in modern American football: how much value each play adds above the league average.
xii · Gridiron · Artificial Intelligence
Four quarters.
Eleven against eleven.
One algorithm.
«Football is chess with human bodies.» — Bill Belichick
Anticipate the outcome of every NFL and NCAA game with the cold precision of an Artificial Intelligence engine trained on the complete analytical corpus of the modern gridiron. Goetia cross-references EPA per play, offensive and defensive DVOA, red zone efficiency, defensive line pressure rate, secondary coverage, QB performance under pressure, injury status, weather and coordinator matchups — delivering covered spreads, moneylines, totals and player props with surgical precision.
✦ Analyse the game
78%ATS against the spread
+320Variables analysed
32NFL teams · 134 NCAA
24/7Engine always active
§ 01 · Codex
Chess in armour.
American football is the most analytically dense sport on the planet. Every play is a discrete tactical decision involving twenty-two players executing specific assignments, a playbook of more than four hundred pages, offensive and defensive coordinators adjusting in real time, and a positional matchup where the difference between an elite left tackle and an average one can decide the championship.
That is why the NFL is also the laboratory where sports analytics took its greatest leaps: EPA (Expected Points Added), DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), success rate, pressure rate, coverage grade, pass block win rate. Advanced metrics that explain 80% of the variance in any given game — and that professional sportsbook operations consume on a daily basis.
Our Artificial Intelligence engine is trained on the complete analytical corpus of the modern gridiron: full NFL and NCAA seasons, historical play-by-play data going back to 1999, tracking of all 22 players on every snap, scheme fingerprints for every offensive and defensive coordinator in the league, and historical patterns of how each scheme performs against every other scheme.
We cross-reference the hard variables — EPA per play, offensive and defensive DVOA, red zone efficiency, third-and-short conversion rate, pressure rate, coverage grades, home/away splits, performance in divisional games, opponent-adjusted DVOA — with the contextual variables that naive models ignore: injury status at key positions (QB, LT, CB1, edge rusher, WR1), expected weather (wind over 15 mph reduces QB rating by an average of 12%), altitude, relative rest between games, divisional rivalry, transcontinental travel and playoff hunt pressure.
The result is a technical report delivering the straight-up winner, ATS spread cover, projected total points, best value in the player props market, the decisive matchup of the game and the three plays most likely to decide the outcome. The same type of analysis consumed by a professional Vegas operation — delivered directly to your inbox.
§ 02 · Variables
Everything that decides a Sunday.
△
Adjusted DVOA
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Adjusts performance against the real quality of the opponent — separating the team that crushes sub-.500 opponents from those that compete against contenders.
◎
Red Zone & 3rd down
Offensive efficiency inside the 20-yard line and third-and-short conversion rate. The two situations where games are won and lost.
⚡
Pressure & coverage
Defensive line pressure rate without blitzing, secondary coverage grades and QB performance against pressure — the matchup that decides 60% of games.
✚
Injury report
Injuries at premium positions (QB, LT, CB1, edge rusher, WR1). A single absence at one of these positions moves the spread between 2 and 7 points.
☁
Weather & logistics
Wind, temperature, precipitation, altitude, rest between games, transcontinental travel, time zone shift, divisional rivalry and playoff hunt pressure.
§ 03 · The three units
Three phases. Three matchups.
O
i · Offense
Offense
We analyse the offense from QB1 to WR5: passing EPA, rushing EPA, offensive line pass block win rate, air yards, yards after catch, explosive play rate and red zone efficiency against defenses with a similar profile to that week's opponent.
D
ii · Defense
Defense
We evaluate the defense by phase: run defense DVOA, pressure rate without blitzing, coverage grade per cornerback, scheme fit (Cover 1, Cover 3, Quarters, Match), takeaway rate and historical tendencies against the offensive style they will face on Sunday.
S
iii · Special Teams
Special Teams
The forgotten unit that decides close games. Field goal percentage by distance, net punting, return game, hidden yardage and field position ratio — typically worth between 3 and 5 points on the final spread.
§ 04 · How it works
From the film room
to the verdict.
i.
Identify the game
You tell us the away team, home team, week, league (NFL, NCAA) and the markets you want analysed.
ii.
Analytical cross-reference
The AI cross-references EPA, DVOA, red zone, pressure rate, coverage, injuries, weather and scheme fingerprints for both coordinators.
iii.
Positional matchup
Identifies the three key matchups of the game and projects how they will unfold play by play across all four quarters.
iv.
Technical report
You receive the straight-up winner, ATS spread, projected total, value picks in the props market and the three decisive plays.
§ 05 · Reviews
Games that fell according to plan.
✦ ✦ ✦ ✦ ✦
«The AI identified that the LT vs. star edge rusher matchup was the key to the game. It predicted the underdog to cover the spread. It fell exactly as described.»
Damián Crossfield
Miami · Professional bettor
✦ ✦ ✦ ✦ ✦
«What caught my attention was the under call with 22 mph winds when the market hadn't adjusted. It ended 17–13 with three drops. That kind of contextual diagnosis is something average models simply don't provide.»
Marc Whitaker
Toronto · Analyst
✦ ✦ ✦ ✦ ✦
«It predicted the QB over 300 passing yards prop against a weak Cover 3. Its props performance has been the most consistent I've seen across a full season.»
Carolina Ponzo
Buenos Aires · NFL fan
§ 06 · Your consultation
Request the
game analysis.
Tell us the teams, week, league and markets you want analysed. Our AI engine will return the technical report with the straight-up winner, ATS spread, projected total, value picks and the three decisive plays of the matchup.
- Email predicciones-de-futbol-americano@goetia.ai
- Report Technical PDF
- Response before kickoff
- Language ES · EN · PT
+18 · Responsible gambling · Predictions are probabilistic technical analysis, not guarantees · Only bet what you can afford to lose